The cooperation agreement and the paradigm shift in Kenyan politics

Raila Odinga and president Ruto's coming together is framed as a move to unify the country, as stated in their Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), but it may not be what it seems. Even some of the issues they are proposing can be addressed without their so-called "cooperation" agreement. The Constitution of Kenya 2010 provides a robust legal framework to address the country's socio-economic and political challenges, including the Bill of Rights Chapter Four, which safeguards fundamental freedoms. If governance institutions function effectively, there should be no need for such political agreements outside constitutional mandates.  

The truth of the matter is that their MOU originates from the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, one of many documents that appear progressive on paper but often fail in implementation. This highlights Kenya's chronic issue: a wealth of policies but a lack of proper execution. If NADCO failed to address critical issues such as the high cost of living, electoral justice, and economic stability, then this so-called cooperation appears redundant. Moreover, NADCO undertones of power-sharing suggest that this agreement might be an indirect strategy for political accommodation rather than a genuine reform effort.  

Additionally, no leader from the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) or the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) will openly admit that Raila's union with Ruto is a calculated political move. However, in reality, this alliance is a strategy to consolidate votes ahead of the 2027 elections. ODM think tanks present it as a unity initiative, but national cohesion does not require political deals between two leaders. It is evident that ODM has strategically positioned itself within government, with key allies occupying ministerial roles and heading crucial parliamentary committees, an indication that ODM, though not officially part of the government, is operating within its structures.  

The Gen Z-led protests on June 25, 2024, sent a resounding message about Kenya’s democracy, signaling a paradigm shift in the country’s political landscape. However, Raila Odinga’s decision to align with president Ruto seems to have undercut that momentum. I dare say it was a well-calculated move, as the mobilization power of Gen Z has diminished significantly since then. This raises questions about the true nature of the alliance between the two leaders.  

That said, this is not new to many Kenyans, given Raila’s historical pattern of engaging with the government of the day. Since 1997, he has forged alliances with successive administrations. Many political analysts argue that Raila’s influence in Kenyan politics is most potent when he remains in opposition rather than in government. His recurring strategy of co-opting the opposition into government raises concerns about whether his political maneuvers are driven by national interests or by personal and party benefits.  

More importantly, Kenya’s political class should be alarmed by the growing wave of discontent among citizens. A politically conscious and distressed electorate is reshaping traditional political norms. The rise of civic education amplified through digital platforms like X (formerly Twitter) has created an informed voter base that is scrutinizing governance like never before. First, the scale of this awareness is unprecedented. Second, candidates challenging the presidency in 2027 should not be underestimated. Third, despite the political handshake between Raila and Ruto, the public mood remains largely unchanged, and Kenyans are more politically engaged than ever.  

Initially, I expected serious political engagement to intensify around 2026, but Kenyans are demonstrating impatience with the Ruto administration, as well as with critics and emerging opposition figures. Ladies and gentlemen, we are at a defining moment in Kenya’s political history. The critical question remains: Will Kenya chart a different path this time? Will the electorate resist political theatrics, especially those orchestrated through religious influence and divisive mobilization tactics?  

These are crucial questions as Kenya seeks to redefine its political tradition and as we brace for the high-stakes elections of 2027!

By Mukhwana Micah